Fiscal ‘09 economic growth figures revised downward

Sunday, May 16, 2010
Mehtab Haider

ISLAMABAD: Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) has revised downward the growth figurers of fiscal 2008/09 (July-June) to 1.2 percent from the earlier official figures of 2.0 percent, which is likely to increase 2009/10 GDP growth rate to 4.10 percent, it was learnt on Saturday.

According to the bureau’s working paper, which will be presented before the National Accounts meeting on May 18 to finalise provisional GDP figures, it was amusing to see that the construction sector grew by 15 percent in fiscal 2009/10. This double digit growth came at a time when Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) has been slashed to Rs250 billion from Rs421 billion and there are hardly any major private sector construction schemes in the pipeline.

In view of this unusual downward revision of GDP growth of fiscal 2008/09, that resulted into low base and set the ground for increasing the growth rate for the current fiscal, there are chances that the figure fudging allegations are going to resurface again.

The Federal Bureau of Statistics’ 2009/10 growth estimates of 4.0-4.10 per cent are even beyond Finance Ministryís expectations, which predicted it in the range of 3.0 to 3.3 percent.

Keeping in view this looming controversy, an official note has been forwarded to the Finance Ministry wizards by the concerned high ups, pointing out that it would be hard for every one to digest such a downward revision in the GDP for the last financial year.

“Who is going to believe that the national economy grew by 4.10 percent in 2009/10 despite severe electricity shortages and suicide bombing in various parts of the country that choked investment and savings,” said a senior official sources requesting anonymity.

The Federal Bureau of Statistics showed a growth in the sale of air conditioners by 70 to 80 percent in November 2009 compared with the same month last year ñ a figure many analysts say remains hard to believe. According to the working paper, manufacturing and service sectors contributed and helped the country achieved these growth figures.

The Large Scale Manufacturing grew by 4.3 percent in 2009/10 despite an acute shortage of electricity in the country and shutter down of businesses in many major cities. The services sector grew by 4.6 percent during the current fiscal.

One Finance Ministry official said that manufacturing sector was performing well after November 2009 and there were expectation that it would rebound to help achieve a respectable growth for the country.

The growth of agriculture sector stands at 2.2 percent in 2009/10 against the envisaged target of 3.8 percent. Despite negative growth in major and minor crops by 3.1 and 2.2 per cent respectively, the agriculture growth remained positive thanks to the livestock sector, which grew by an estimated 4.1 per cent during the current fiscal.

The growth of wholesale and trade was shown in the range of 4.0 to 5.0 per cent despite this fact that the imports were on the decline in the outgoing fiscal.