Five-year plan sees 7pc economic growth in fiscal 2014/15

Sunday, May 16, 2010
By Aftab Maken

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy is likely to grow by 7.0 percent in fiscal 2014/15, while its overall economic growth would hover around 5.5 percent on an average over the next five years, reveals a copy of the 10th five-year plan 2010/15.

The 10th five-year plan envisages that by fiscal 2014/15, the growth rate for agriculture will be 4.8 per cent, industry 9.2 per cent, and service sector 6.4 per cent.

The target for 2009/10 was 3.3 per cent for overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. The government estimates a growth of 3.6 per cent in the agriculture sector, 2.3 per cent in the industry and 3.7 per cent in services for the current fiscal.

The average growth rate for the five-year period 2010/15 is expected at 5.0 to 5.5 per cent, according to the plan.

Despite optimistic projections, the next five-year plan cited a number of constrains for achieving the desired growth rate, including resource mobilisation, security situation, energy & water and work ethics, skills and competitiveness.

The plan did not give specific remedies for these constrains, it only suggested cosmetic approaches and solutions including, “close coordination and interaction between key policy-makers - financial and development planners and key ministries.”

The plan estimates the growth rate for Large-Scale Manufacturing to reach 9.5 per cent of the GDP in 2014/15 against one per cent in 2009/10. Services sector and wholesale & retail trade growth rate is seen at 6.9 per cent, and financial & insurance at 9.5 per cent in 2014/15 against 3.5 per cent and one per cent respectively in 2009/10.

The five-year plan foresees that by 2015 wheat output will reach 30 million tons, rice 7.5 million tons, and cotton 20.7 million bales against 25 million tons of wheat, 5.9 million tons of rice and 13.4 million bales of cotton respectively in 2010.

The position of human development indicators that include education, health, water supply & sanitation and social protection will also be much improved in this five-year plan 2010/15.

Some of the indicators of education that include adult literacy rate and net primary & secondary enrolments will be increased to 100 per cent whereas the infant mortality rate will be decreased to 40 per cent and maternal mortality ratio to 140 per cent.

Similarly, the access to improved water sources and sanitation will also be improved to above 90 per cent whereas poverty headcount ratio will be decreased from 30 per cent to 13 per cent and BISP coverage will also be increased from 7 million to 12 million in 2015, said the plan.

The plan also envisages new development strategy of “investing in people” by increasing the share of total expenditures both public and private - in education, health, and meeting the MDGs.